October 1999
"Priming The Pump": The Role of Retransmission Consent in the Transition To Digital Television
By Stuart N. Brotman

VIII. CONCLUSION

A recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report suggested that the availability of all digital signals in a market through a must-carry requirement would be critical in "boosting the early demand for DTV sets." ²⁵ Although the report expressed concern about the transition to digital TV because it "involves consumer demand for new technology," neither the CBO nor any other organization has demonstrated that the additional viewing of digital broadcast program services carried under must-carry status would make any difference in digital receiver buying decisions.

The cable television industry, working with broadcasters to establish retransmission consent agreements for digital television, already has begun to ensure that a large segment of the cable universe can receive programming services from local broadcast stations and cable networks. This programming may induce a digital receiver buying decision. If it does not, additional programming from must-carry stations would be unlikely to change the decision to buy. Adding to the number of stations available has not proven to be a spark for additional receiver sales. When people buy television sets, whether in 1950 or the year 2000, they are not deferring that decision until all possible stations (e.g., six, ten, twelve or more) are available on their dial. This is even truer today, since these stations' analog signals already are carried by cable systems under current must-carry/retransmission consent agreements. Requiring that these stations be carried both in digital and analog form as the transition takes place is unlikely to stimulate additional digital receiver sales, even at mass market prices.